Northern Virginia homeowners should prepare for another round of increases in home-insurance premiums as the region heads into 2026. Industry analysts, insurers, and consumer-advocacy groups all point to the same reality: insurance costs are rising nationwide, and Northern Virginia is no exception.

According to recent data, Virginia homeowners have already seen significant premium hikes over the past five years, driven by a complicated mix of climate-related risks, rising construction costs, and shifting insurance-industry practices. And experts warn the upward trend isn’t slowing down.

By Lynn Norusis
December 2025

Why Insurance Rates Are Rising

Climate-Related Risks Are Increasing

One of the biggest drivers behind rising premiums is the intensifying impact of severe weather. While Northern Virginia is not typically associated with hurricanes or large-scale natural disasters, recent storms, flooding events, and wind-damage incidents have pushed insurers to reassess the region’s risk profile.

Nationwide patterns support this trend: industry research shows that climate-related claims have surged, leading insurers to raise rates broadly — even in areas with historically low risk.

Rebuilding Costs Are Higher Than Ever

The cost to rebuild or repair a home has jumped sharply since 2020. Lumber, roofing, electrical components, plumbing fixtures, and skilled labor remain significantly more expensive than pre-pandemic levels. Insurers adjust premiums based on what it would cost to rebuild a home today, not what it cost when you bought it, meaning even homes without recent claims are seeing increases.

Insurers Are Tightening Their Underwriting

Across the country, several major insurance carriers have reduced their exposure in higher-risk zones, raising deductibles or declining renewals. While Virginia has not experienced the same level of withdrawal seen in California or Florida, insurers are becoming more selective. Homes with aging roofs, outdated systems, drainage concerns, or prior claims may face larger increases or stricter requirements.

A Look at Virginia’s Recent Trajectory

Virginia premiums have risen approximately 18% in the past five years, according to statewide estimates. Northern Virginia homeowners—especially those in older neighborhoods in Fairfax, Arlington, Loudoun, and Prince William Counties—often report year-over-year increases of 15% to 25%, even without filing a claim.

As of late 2025, the average homeowners-insurance policy in Virginia costs around $1,840 per year, depending on coverage levels and home characteristics.

Forecast: What Northern Virginia Can Expect Through 2028

Based on current market indicators, here’s the most likely cost trajectory* for NoVA homeowners:

2025: ~$1,840
2026: $1,950-$2,100 (6%-14% increase)
2027: $2,050-$2,250 (5%-8% increase)
2028; $2,150-$2,350

*These figures assume a standard home with mid-range dwelling-coverage values and no recent claims.

Factors That Could Push Rates Even Higher

• A major regional storm or flood event

• Increased construction-material inflation

• Underwriting tightening from large insurers

• More granular climate-risk modeling that targets older homes

What Could Hold Rates Down

• Stabilizing construction and labor costs

• Increased insurer competition

• Homeowner-driven risk mitigation (roof upgrades, drainage improvements, electrical/plumbing updates)

Impact on Buyers and Sellers

For prospective homebuyers, rising insurance costs mean recalculating affordability. Monthly housing payments are no longer just principal, interest, taxes, and utilities—insurance has become a meaningful number in the total cost of ownership.

For sellers and real-estate professionals, transparency around ongoing insurance costs is becoming part of the conversation. Older homes, in particular, may face higher premiums if major systems have not been updated.

What Homeowners Can Do Now

Experts recommend:

• Shopping around every renewal cycle, as carriers vary widely in pricing

• Updating roofs, plumbing, electrical systems, and drainage to reduce risk and qualify for discounts

• Reviewing your dwelling-coverage limits to ensure they’re accurate—many homes are under-insured or over-insured

• Considering a higher deductible to offset premium increases

Home-insurance costs are expected to keep rising into 2026 and beyond, driven by climate pressure, higher rebuilding expenses, and shifting insurer behavior. For Northern Virginia—where older home inventory is common and severe weather risk is increasing—premiums are likely to continue trending upward.