With the rollout of executive orders and DOGE decrees calling for and implementing a reduction of federal government employees, plus return-to-work orders, there is a lot of strain throughout Northern Virginia. How is it affecting the housing market? It is causing uncertainty.

By Lynn Norusis
March 5, 2025

Based on Bright MLS listing data, we’re not seeing any evidence of a surge of listing activity in the Washington, D.C., region. In the broader D.C. region, there were 2,829 new listings that came onto the market in the two-week period between February 3 and February 16, 2025. This is virtually unchanged from the same two weeks last year when there were 2,820 new listings on the market.

In some local markets we do see an uptick in new listings activity this year, but nothing about the geographic pattern of listing activity suggests that it is related to homeowners who are or were federal government employees. For example, listings were up by 7% in Alexandria but were down by 2% in Arlington.

No one has a crystal ball as to how these job reductions or return-to-work orders will play into the market in the upcoming spring market or the entire year, but this is what we are seeing from an actual number standpoint, put together by Bright MLS, the area’s multiple listing service from the week ending on March 2, 2025:

• Sellers in Northern Virginia markets drove new listing activity last week. While overall new listings in the greater Washington, D.C., area were up 11.4% year-over-year, listings surged in Alexandria (+45.7%), Prince William County (+33.3%), Arlington County (+30.0%), and Fairfax County (+22.9%).   
• Some—but not all—markets with a bump in new listings have a concentration of federal workers. According to data from the 2023 American Community Survey, about 14% of the Washington D.C. metro area workforce are federal government civilian employees. But the concentrations of federal workers vary considerably across the metro. In Alexandria and Arlington, the share is close to 20%, while in Prince William and Fairfax counties about 13% of the workforce are federal government civilian employees.  
• List prices are still up, but more sellers are starting to drop their asking price. According to data from the 2023 American Community Survey, about 14% of the Washington, D.C., metro area workforce are federal government civilian employees. But the concentrations of federal workers vary considerably across the metro. In Alexandria and Arlington, the share is close to 20%, while in Prince William and Fairfax counties, about 13% of the workforce are federal government civilian employees.

 

Although the Washington, D.C., metro area has more federal government workers than any other metropolitan area, federal government employees make up only 9% of the region’s total workforce, according to data from the U.S. Office of Personnel Management. Reductions in the overall federal workforce and back-to-the-office requirements may ultimately have some localized impacts on housing market activity; however, so far, there is nothing to suggest that those changes are having a substantial impact on the broader D.C.-area housing market, according to Bright MLS.

If you have questions regarding your specific neighborhood, or price point of home, reach out for an in-depth consultation.